Future Strategists
What's to come in the evolution of the practice of strategy
A few years ago, I wrote an essay about what will shape future strategists. I’ve revisited the essay and revised it to widen the aperture to include a wider set of strategists.
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Strategists evolve, shaped by the times they live in, prisoners of the problems of the day. And so, as the world constantly changes, so must strategists. So what will mold future strategists?
The task is to see what future challenges might be on the horizon, and then connect them to the characteristics it will take to succeed. This essay thinks to Generation Z, first born in the mid-1990s and running through the 2010s. I was born at the tail end of Generation X, so Gen Z is the generation of my two daughters, so I have a personal stake in contemplating their futures. Gen Z’s first strategists will enter positions of strategic service (i.e., high-level staff positions) about 2030 and by 2050 they will occupy the entirety of key strategic decision-making positions if the past is any guide. What follows are five characteristics that will differentiate them from today’s strategists, each tied to tidal trends in the strategic environment that will most likely drive the next several decades.
1. Global. This is the easiest to gauge. The world is getting smaller all the time. Businesses are mostly geo-agnostic. When it comes to war, all major American allies are in demographic decline, which over time will force countries to share the burdens of military expenditure. It’s one thing to not want to spend blood or treasure, it’s another thing to not have enough young people to spend. In turn, this will mean more multinational operations, overseas assignments, and international engagement. Strategists will depend more on peers in other countries.
2. Technical. Dependency on tech is increasing. Most people respond to the absence of some technology (i.e., smartphone) as they would to a toddler that wanders beyond sight. Competency in the classroom or boardroom is often tied to some technical skill. Moreover, as adversaries learn to harness new technological advancements, this drives further the need to possess technical and scientific literacy for response. When it comes to war, nuclear weapons, precision strike, global pandemics, shifting climate, crop failure, water shortages–all require a working knowledge of what modern science can tell us about how these dangers function. Strategists will need to understand these.
3. Command. Command and leadership will be more meritocratic. Public belief in the old, experienced WASP male at the head of an institution has been shaken. Nowadays people have grown much more comfortable with young leaders in positions of power through Silicon Valley’s start-up successes. Over time it will seem absurd that lower-level tactical prowess (in the military, defined as at the company, battalion, and brigade command-level) necessarily means a leader will make a superior commander. It is likely that some strategists will leap-frog lower leadership levels to command at senior levels.
4. Narrative. In the military, strategists often focus on fighting and politics. But there’s a third area that’s gained steam in the Information Age: narrative. While the military creates a new monopoly on violence, and politicians certify this new monopoly, the people consecrate it by choosing a particular narrative that supports the monopoly’s continuance. Getting the other side to believe in and observe your story matters more than it used to when everybody has access to unlimited information. As such, future strategists will aim to possess a blend of PT Barnum’s showmanship, Stephen King’s penmanship, and Don Draper’s salesmanship.
5. Female. Two things are happening. Women are out-graduating and outperforming men in every major educational category. Leadership will correspond and likely be more female. Second, the way society perceives women is changing, from the movies (many major blockbusters have female leads and heroes), to elite military schools, to the selection of the first female combatant commander several years ago. My daughters could very well take up the family business, and they’ll be better than their Dad ever was.