Designing risk-free endeavors
Something we can learn from Medieval turtles from the Middle East
What can I do to advance my position - right now - that’s completely risk-free?
Of course there’s no such thing as cost-free. You have to ante up, at least something, whether it be time or money or resource.
But is there something you can put into play - again, right now! - that improves the odds of your success without jeopardizing anything at all?
Yes. Likely yes. If you look hard enough, I think you’ll find some way you can nudge the universe forward in your desired direction without any downsides.
I came across this super-interesting anecdote that got me to thinking through this very subject in my own life. It comes from The Book of Charlatans, an entertaining written work from the 13th century, written by Jamal al-Din ‘Abd al-Rahim al-Jawbari. Jawbari’s goal was to unpack how thieves and criminals plied their trades in that age.
Jawbari explains how thieves used turtles:
The [burglar] will have a flint with him, which he strikes. He will also have a candle the size of a little finger, which he lights and sticks to the turtle’s back. Then he sends the turtle through the hole, and the turtle takes a turn around the whole house while the man observes what’s there and finds out where to go. All this is while he’s still on the outside of the hole. If anyone becomes aware of his presence, he withdraws and leaves. If not, he will have become familiar with the whole house and its contents and what route he should take, and everything about it will be familiar to him. When the candle goes out, he enters through the hole, goes where he wants, takes what he wants, and comes out unharmed. Wise up to these things!
Imagine that. Sending a turtle on a reconnaissance. And if the turtle gets caught, the thief is out a reptile and a little bit of shaped wax. Turtles probably weren’t nearly free, but couldn’t have been terribly expensive. Let’s say, just to throw a number on it, that the turtles used in these jobs cost $100 each in today’s money.
It’s a bet. The upside is the loot you get from looting an empty house. Pretty substantial. The downside is being out about a 100 bucks.
The best feature is a bet like that, getting replayed dozens of times, is very likely to pay out quite well. There is the small chance of getting caught…but if you’ve invested in good recon turtles (like Leonardo or Donatello for you TMNT fans!) then the darkest downside is far less likely to happen.
(Now. There is one thing worth mentioning. Success can lead to failure. Say this becomes so common and such a wildly winning strategy that the local authorities clamp down on the turtle trade to find out who’s buying them. Something to watch out for. But I digress.)
I’ve used this anecdote in my own life to think through what risk-free strategies I can get into the game. Little test balloons. That probe. That can report back. That won’t cost me much, and that very well might come back, once in a while, with a big payday.